The MoTN survey is in January. But the way the politics of Uttar Pradesh is changing in February is telling a different story. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, UP is going in 2014 mode, if similar conditions remain then BJP’s number of seats may increase further.
Whereas according to the India Today-Aajtak MoTN survey, BJP seems to be winning 70 Lok Sabha seats in UP. In the 2014 elections, BJP had won 71 seats when there was no Ram Mandir.
BJP would like to take the victory figures further Even if RLD’s Jayant Chaudhary had to make efforts for this. The question arises that if despite the Ram Mandir wave, BJP is getting only 70 seats from UP, then what will happen to Prime Minister Narendra Modi from 370 Lok Sabha seats?
An Increase in SP’s Vote Percentage Means Difficulty for The BJP.
The BJP is also increasing its votes by about 12 percent as compared to 2019. This means that the Samajwadi Party seems to be cutting into the share of its opposition colleagues. Samajwadi Party’s seat count will also increase in 2024 as compared to last time (5).
This time Samajwadi Party seems to be winning about 7 seats. This time there is a two-way battle between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party. In the double battle there will be a game of vote polarization between both parties, the one who wins will be entitled to get more votes than this survey. Both parties benefit from polarization
What do BJP’s Votes Indicate?
Out of the remaining seven seats, 5 are under Mulayam Singh Yadav But in the 2019 elections, there was an electoral alliance between the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, which benefited the opposition and BSP got 10 seats, and Samajwadi PartyBecause this time Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samajwadi Party are once again contesting elections separately. But this time the situation may be worse than in 2014. If Sonia Gandhi does not contest elections from Rae Bareli this time, then BJP will have a close fight here too.
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This Time BJP is in a Strong Position in Eastern and Western UP:
Due to the inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, the coming together of Omprakash Rajbhar and Dara Singh Chauhan, Nitish Kumar joining NDA, and the separation of Bahujan Samaj Party That BJP is winning every seat in Eastern UP this time.These seats were Bijnor, Amroha. By the time it was January, RLD and Samajwadi Party were seen together. But after the survey, the situation seems to be getting better for the BJP.
